Demand and capacity modelling future proofs new hospital design
The Women and Children’s Hospital programme team has reached an important milestone in modelling the expected demand and required capacity for the new hospital. This work forms a crucial part of shaping the future clinical model and ensuring the new hospital is designed around the needs of women, children and families for years to come. The significant achievement has been reached following a dynamic process of data analytics, and productive discussions with national NHP colleagues, and regional NHS and ICB colleagues.
In this blog, we talk to Data Science Lead, Joe Turner and Information Section Manager, Brandon Chapman from RCHT’s Business Intelligence team. Their expertise and commitment have underpinned the modelling work from the outset, which will go on to help the design team to create a right-sized scheme long into the future.
First of all, what is demand and capacity modelling?
Demand and capacity modelling is essentially about understanding how much activity a service is likely to need in the future, and how much resource is required to meet that need. Simply put, Demand and Capacity models use historic (baseline) information and assumptions to model the capacity required to meet a predicted demand – in this case, demand for our various women and children’s clinical services. The baseline information is first reviewed with our clinical teams by subject-matter experts within the clinical services so that any seasonal patterns are understood, with assumptions checked for appropriateness.
The purpose is straightforward: to make sure our new hospital is designed at the right scale – not too big, not too small – so that when it opens, it can meet patient needs both on day one and well into the future. The New Hospital Programme model uses broad national datasets to predict future demand. However, locally we have access to more granular data including splits by birth type and theatre operating hours. Our more detailed information has been used to improve the nationally modelled information. (None of this information is traceable to patients.)
Why is it so important for our new hospital?
This work is crucial in helping to shape the future clinical model for the new hospital and ensuring it is designed around the needs of women, children and families for years to come. It also feeds directly into the benefits we commit to in the business case, so it’s a key part of demonstrating value and planning responsibly.
The modelling over the last six months has been very detailed and intricate, to ensure the programme and clinical teams can make informed decisions. This is also why our Data Science team has been working in close partnership with the New Hospital Programme. Some of the national assumptions hadn’t necessarily aligned to how our hospital currently operates, so recent discussions between our local system leads, our programme team and the national NHP team have enabled us to better understand and refine the data at national, regional and local levels. As a result, we now have a very strong demand and capacity model, realised through the most accurate and rigorous datasets, to take us through the next phase of planning.
Demand and Capacity Modelling sounds very complex…
Navigating the complexities of demand and capacity modelling is definitely a skill. It’s a discipline full of probabilities, assumptions, and complex simulations – and no two models will ever produce exactly the same results. Ultimately, any model is only ever as good as the data that input that feeds them. The fact that RCHT is the only acute Trust in Cornwall which has implications for optimum occupancy adds another layer of intricacy. And this is why business intelligence and analytical skills play a key role in checking and challenging the key data.
The Data Science team has taken the New Hospital Programme demand model, which runs a number of simulations using different probabilities and assumptions, and used a range of modelling techniques including Erlang modelling (also used in the design of call centres) to convert the expected demand into the required capacity for our new Women and Children’s Hospital, getting the right number of rooms, theatres and clinical spaces to try and prevent any delays to patient care.
What happens now? How will we use the demand and capacity model?
RCHT and the New Hospital Programme have agreed the capacity required for our new hospital, based on the data science from both parties.
This data is fed to our multidisciplinary design team to make sure that the designs they produce for the new Women and Children’s Hospital contain everything we need – everything from the number of inpatient rooms and operating theatres to consultation and examination rooms, waiting areas, rest areas for staff, and more. The modelling outcomes also influence our Outline Business Case as it will be used to help define the overall benefits of the scheme.
How does it feel to be part of the team delivering our new Women and Children’s Hospital?
We are very proud of the work we have done. The journey has been frustrating at times, but the outcomes for the new hospital are excellent. It’s been really interesting and satisfying to be part of the wider programme, especially knowing how important the modelling is for the future design and development of the Women and Children’s Hospital.